Palm Oil Production To Decline

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Fellow Soapers, I stumbled upon this article from 2020 and thought it might interest some of us. I don't use palm oil myself, but it seems all oils will be affected in some way. This was written before the war in Ukraine where most of the sunflower oil is produced. I can't find high oleic sunflower oil now, and the prices of all oils have shot through the roof! I'm still a noobie so maybe you all know this already. Forgive me if it is old news to you.
What's a maiden to do?
I pasted and underlined the info below from this web page: Oilseed sector braces for high oleic ‘explosion’ | The Western Producer
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Demand for high oleic canola and soybean oil is expected to soar after 2025 because of a seasonal palm oil decline. North American oilseed growers should brace for an “explosion” in demand for high oleic oils, says a senior executive with the organization that administers the United States soybean checkoff.
“We expect the world to be in a significant deficit situation by 2025 and that will reach its peak in 2030,” said John Jansen, the United Soybean Board’s vice-president of oil strategy.
“It’s great news for all high oleics.”

High oleic oils and palm oil have largely displaced partially hydrogenated soybean oil in the edible oil market due to concerns about trans fats.
But palm oil plantations work on 15-year cycles and they have just entered what is considered their dormancy period where yields are on the decline.
Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s two leading palm oil producers, have also increased their biodiesel mandates, which will usurp oil that was destined for the food market.

Cornell University has done some modelling for USB showing that the reduction in palm oil supply for the food oil market will result in increased demand for high oleic oils.
“We’re getting prepared for an explosion around 2025,” said Jansen.
 

earlene

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Wow, there is a vice-president of oil strategy. Oil strategy! Thank you for posting this. It looks like all the oils we use in soapmaking are already affected and that it will continue for quite a long time to come.

I wonder if & when we will ever get some accurate stats for the newer HO soybean oils (soy wax, in particular because I use it in soap). That's what seems to be lacking when I go to make soap using soy wax (partially hydrogenated soybean oil). That is another discussion for another thread (there are threads that discuss that issue, btw.)

I did not realize palm oil production required 15 year cycles. I have only started using it recently; perhaps I will be switching back to no-palm in the near future.
 

paradisi

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It's hard for me to believe that all palm plantations, even in one country, are all on the same cycle, around the globe. I've been soaping 20 years and don't remember a dip or glut 15 years ago, nor any mention of a global dormancy problem with supply.

I'll wait to see.
 

TheGecko

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I'm reading just the opposite. There was supposed to be problems when Indonesia decided to quit exporting Palm Oil, but now has changed it mind after I guess farmers threw a massive fit when prices bottomed out. Now I have read that Malaysia PO stock prices have fallen, but that's not unexpected. Indonesia's ban increased Malaysia's exports some 27% which required that they dig into their stockpiles to meet the demand.

I use 20% PO...haven't had any problems getting in, haven't seen much of an increase.
 

Sara Smith

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There is another good article on ‘newscientist’ website on sunflower oil shortage and its forecast. It’s a good read, written by science journalist Michael Le Page.
 
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